Ireland vs Afghanistan, 5th ODI — Afghanistan tour of Ireland

Who will win IRE vs AFG?

Cric First AI picks Afghanistan · confidence 76/100

• Afghanistan already lead this five-match series 3-0 with one washout.
• Toss won by Afghanistan, who chose to bowl first at Stormont.
• Stormont surface rated fast & bounce — seams early, flattens later.
• Rashid Khan has taken 12 wickets in his last three ODIs, including 6-34.

Multiple previews specifically tipped Afghanistan to bowl first here, and the toss call matches that consensus exactly.

Result: AFG won by 6 wickets. Prediction correct.

Toss and conditions

Afghanistan won the toss and chose to bowl first; Ireland bat first. Continues Afghanistan's series-long habit of bowling first when conditions allow seam movement.

Bowling first extends Afghanistan's pattern this series of controlling the chase at Stormont.

Fresh, bouncy Stormont strip suits Fazalhaq Farooqi and Yamin Ahmadzai new-ball probing before Ireland's top order settles.

Key factors

Projected score and key matchup

First innings: 235-260 — Fresh, bouncy Stormont strip should ease through the middle overs, favouring the chasing side.

Andy Balbirnie v Rashid Khan: Balbirnie's last hundred came in a losing cause; Rashid will again target him through the middle overs.

Players to watch

Head-to-head and form

Afghanistan lead the series 3-0 with one washout, completing a tight chase at Stormont in the third ODI before defending a total in the fourth.

Ireland: Ireland chase pride, still winless in a series already lost 3-0.

Afghanistan: Afghanistan, already through to the 2027 World Cup, look to complete a series sweep.

The story so far

This series has been one-way traffic. After the opener was rained off, Afghanistan won the second ODI by 92 runs, edged a nervy three-wicket chase in the third to seal World Cup qualification and the series, then held on again in the fourth despite Andy Balbirnie's hundred and a Curtis Campher blitz dragging Ireland close. Ireland arrive at this dead-rubber decider still searching for their first win of the tour, their top order repeatedly undone early and their middle order leaning on rescue acts rather than control. Afghanistan, by contrast, have layered explosive batting from Sediqullah Atal and Ibrahim Zadran with a spin attack that has strangled Ireland through the middle overs.

The toss call fits the pattern that has decided this series: bowl first, let Farooqi and Ahmadzai probe the new-ball bounce, then chase with the surface calmer and the required rate visible. Stormont has repeatedly rewarded that approach, easing out as innings progress even as it offers zip up front. With the series already gone, Ireland's shape is less about survival than about finding answers — specifically whether Balbirnie can anchor an innings deep enough to give Dockrell, Hoey and Adair something to defend, and whether the middle order can finally see off Rashid Khan, who has taken 12 wickets in his last three outings and dictated every close finish so far.

The chase: AFG need 299

Afghanistan have the batting depth to chase 299, but Ireland's Dockrell-Hoey combo on this bouncy surface keeps this contest tight.

Afghanistan have chased big totals at this ground before, so 299 is well within range if Ibrahim Zadran and Sediqullah Atal get through the new ball. Ireland's spin-heavy middle overs plan with Dockrell will decide whether this becomes a canter or a squeeze.

Conditions: Fast, bouncy Stormont pitch, clear skies expected, dew not a factor for this chase.

• Afghanistan need 299 to win at Stormont.
• Fast, bouncy surface favours strokeplay if width is on offer.
• No dew expected — day-start conditions stay true through 50 overs.

Ibrahim Zadran v George Dockrell: Zadran's ability to see off Dockrell's control overs will shape whether Afghanistan stay ahead of the required rate.

• Afghanistan losing early wickets to Hoey's new-ball pace.
• Dockrell strangling scoring rate through overs 20-35.
• Required rate climbing past seven in the death overs.