Trent Rockets (Women) vs Birmingham Phoenix (Women), Match 22 — The Hundred Womens

Who will win TR-W vs BP-W?

Cric First AI picks Trent Rockets (Women) · confidence 66/100

Rockets' top-order consistency and Gardner's form make them deserved favourites at home, but Perry and Capsey are exactly the players who ignore form lines — Phoenix's path is narrow, not closed.

Result: TR-W won by 6 wickets. Prediction correct.

Key factors

Projected score and key matchup

First innings: 140-150 — Trent Bridge has been the tournament's best batting surface — Rockets' in-form top three project a shade higher than Phoenix's star-dependent card.

Ellyse Perry v Ashleigh Gardner: Two Australians who know each other's games inside out. Gardner's off-spin into Perry's pads through the middle overs is the passage that decides whether Phoenix post enough — Perry wins it and Phoenix bat deep; Gardner wins it and the innings stalls.

Players to watch

Head-to-head and form

Rockets go in as clear favourites on form — their top three have out-scored every side in the competition — but Phoenix carry the two most dangerous single-innings players on the park in Perry and Capsey.

Trent Rockets (Women): Trent Rockets' top three have been the competition's most productive — Dunkley with back-to-back fifties, Sciver yet to fail — and Gardner's 4-16 showed the bowling can win a match on its own.

Birmingham Phoenix (Women): Birmingham Phoenix lean on their two stars: Perry unbeaten in two of her last three, Capsey explosive when set. The support scoring around them is the question mark they haven't answered yet.

The story so far

Trent Rockets host Birmingham Phoenix at Trent Bridge with the strongest top order in the competition. Sophia Dunkley has back-to-back fifties — 56(33) and 57(33) — and Nat Sciver's three-match run of 33, 37* and 48 means the Rockets almost never lose both set batters in the same innings. Add Ashleigh Gardner's off-spin, fresh off 4-16, and the home side are rightly favourites. Phoenix's counter is star power: Ellyse Perry is unbeaten twice in three (68* the standout) and Alice Capsey's 51(29) showed what she does when she gets past the first ten balls. Mary Taylor's new-ball burst — 3-24 in her best recent turn — has to strike early, because if Dunkley and Sciver are both still batting at halfway, Trent Bridge's short straight boundaries turn the last forty balls into a run-fest. Phoenix win this by dragging it into a scrap; Rockets win it by keeping it clean.

The chase: TR-W need 123

Trent Rockets, clearly. They restricted Phoenix to a total that is below what this ground normally demands, they bat second in the conditions this venue tends to favour, and their top three cover every scenario — Sciver to control, Dunkley to accelerate, Jones to absorb pressure if the first two go. Phoenix's route back exists but it is narrow: Taylor striking with the new ball, Lamb repeating her recent form, and Rockets contributing errors of impatience. Defending a target this size requires near-perfection from an attack that is two bowlers deep.

Trent Rockets need 123 off 100 balls — a shade over a run a ball on a Trent Bridge surface where par for a women's Hundred innings sits comfortably above what Phoenix managed. Losing seven wickets in the first innings tells you Phoenix never got a partnership to run past the powerplay platform, and 122 asks the Rockets to be sensible rather than spectacular. The equation is simple: bat deep, take the first ten balls at face value against the new ball, then let Sciver control the middle from one end while Dunkley plays the aggressor. Rockets do not need a hero innings; they need two of their top three to still be there at the 60-ball mark. The risk is a soft collapse — Phoenix have wicket-takers who thrive when a chase gets tentative, and if Rockets try to close this out in 70 balls rather than 95, they hand the bowlers a way back in.

Conditions: Trent Bridge under lights: a true, quick-scoring surface with good carry, where the ball skids on nicely once the lacquer goes. Evening moisture typically firms the ball up and takes the sting out of the slower-ball variations, which historically tilts the venue towards the side batting second. Straight boundaries are inviting; the square dimensions reward the hard-run second more than the slog. Expect the new-ball 10 to be the only genuinely awkward passage.

Sophia Dunkley v Emma Lamb: The contest that decides the tempo. Dunkley scores at a rate no one else on the card matches, and against a defending side with no cushion, one clean set from her flips the chase from live to procedural. Lamb is the bowler Phoenix will throw at her precisely because she is their sharpest wicket-taker right now, and she has shown she can bowl through a set without leaking. If Lamb removes Dunkley inside the first 25 balls, Phoenix have a match; if Dunkley gets set, the required rate collapses and Sciver simply steers it home.

• The opening 10 balls: Mary Taylor with the new ball is Phoenix's single best chance of two early wickets before the surface flattens out.
• Balls 26-50 — if Emma Lamb bowls a double set and removes Dunkley or Sciver in it, the required rate suddenly has teeth.
• The 40-remaining mark: Rockets needing under 40 with Sciver still in is procedural, but three wickets down and Jones needing to accelerate against her natural tempo is where Phoenix live.