SL vs WF Prediction & Preview, Match 27, The Hundred Mens

201/4 100 balls ov

SL won by 71 runs

130/6 100 balls ov

Who will win SL vs WF?

Cric First AI picks Sunrisers Leeds · confidence 62/100

SL 59.2%WF 40.8%

Welsh Fire won the toss and bowled — Sunrisers bat first at Headingley.
Spinning surface, overcast Leeds sky, 90% cloud, 22.8C, light 5kph wind.
Marsh (SR 182.6) and Brook (SR 194.1) headline the Sunrisers top three.
Reece Topley benched by Sunrisers; Jafer Chohan left out by Welsh Fire.

Sunrisers' batting depth outweighs the toss edge, but a turning surface widens the range.

Result: SL won by 71 runs. Prediction missed.

Toss and conditions

Fire accept a target rather than chase blind, but Sunrisers get first use of a fresh surface.

Key factors

Top three does the damageSL

Marsh, Rickelton and Brook all strike above 174; recent 94 not out and 76 prove it.

Short is the anchorWF

Short averages 39.0 with scores of 71, 60 not out and 36 — Fire's spine.

Spin, not seam, decides itVENUE

A spinning pitch under overcast cloud means grip and change of pace, not swing.

Lawes is the wicket-takerSL

Thomas Lawes takes 1.6 wickets an innings, including a recent four-for.

Projected score and key matchup

First innings: 176 — Par sits nearer 175 than the 241 this venue produced earlier; spin bites through the middle.

Harry Brook v Joe Root: Root's off-spin has leaked almost nothing lately; Brook must decide whether to attack it or wait.

Players to watch

Sunrisers Leeds (Men)

Batting

Mitchell Marsh · Avg 56.6 · SR 182.6 · last 3: 34(23) · 76(37) · 41(35)

Ryan Rickelton · Avg 41.8 · SR 174.2 · last 3: 65(37) · 94*(42) · 0(3)

Harry Brook · Avg 33.0 · SR 194.1 · last 3: 19(11) · 55(18) · 46(33)

Bowling

Thomas Lawes · 1.6 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 4-40 · 1-76 · 0-27

Nathan Ellis · 1.4 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 1-25 · 2-42 · 1-26

Welsh Fire (Men)

Batting

Matthew Short · Avg 39.0 · SR 141.3 · last 3: 71(47) · 60*(41) · 36(26)

Rachin Ravindra · Avg 27.0 · SR 182.4 · last 3: 14*(5) · 0(2) · 7(7)

Joe Root · Avg 24.8 · SR 113.8 · last 3: 17(20) · 58*(40) · 5(8)

Bowling

Jordan Clark · 1.2 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 2-75 · 0-26 · 4-64

Joe Root · 1.0 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 0-10 · 0-18 · 1-7

Head-to-head and form

No settled recent ledger to lean on; both sides arrive on four wins from six this campaign.

Sunrisers Leeds (Men): Batting first again after posting 241 for 2 and 169 for 7 at Headingley this season.

Welsh Fire (Men): Chose to chase, having last won by riding Short and Root through the middle phase.

The story so far

Welsh Fire bowled first on a gripping Headingley pitch, reasoning that a visible target suits Matthew Short and Joe Root more than a shootout does. Sunrisers still hold the heaviest top three here, and Marsh, Rickelton and Brook need only 40 balls to make that call look wrong.

The chase: WF need 202

Sunrisers hold it — 201 on a gripping deck with Lawes and Ellis in hand tilts the defence.

Welsh Fire need 202, and on a gripping Headingley deck that demands they bank runs in the powerplay rather than gamble on the back ten. Matthew Short at a career strike rate near 141 is the anchor, but someone alongside him has to hit at 180-plus or the required rate strangles this chase.

Conditions: Overcast, 24.7C, 95% cloud, light 3kph breeze — spinning pitch, ball skids under lights.

202 to win off 100 balls — 10.1 per five needed.
Sunrisers lost only 4; Fire's bowlers never squeezed the middle.
Spinning surface means Short and Root must attack early.

Spin grip

A turning Headingley surface punishes new batters — rotation beats slog-sweeping here.

Evening moisture

Under lights the ball skids on; grip issues can ease the chase.

Recent chase evidence

London Spirit made 204 chasing 242 here — 200 is reachable.

Matthew Short v Thomas Lawes: Lawes strikes early or leaks; Short's 47-ball 71 template is exactly the innings Welsh Fire need surviving him.

Pressure points

Balls 26-60: spin on, Fire must not stall.
Lawes' opening burst — a two-wicket set changes everything.
Ellis at the death if 40-plus still needed.

Batting to watch