TR vs BP Prediction & Preview, Match 22, The Hundred Mens

116/3 83 balls ov

TR won by 7 wickets

111/6 100 balls ov

Who will win TR vs BP?

Cric First AI picks Trent Rockets · confidence 76/100

TR 78.9%BP 21.1%

Rockets bowl first at Trent Bridge; Phoenix forced in on a Fast & Bounce deck.
Sam Billings keeps; Tom Banton left out of the Rockets XI.
Phoenix top three average 26.2, 21.6, 19.8 — thin against the new ball.
19.53 kph wind, 41% humidity, few clouds: seam-friendly, no rain threat.

Toss and matchups align for the Rockets; only a Ferreira counter-punch changes the shape.

Result: TR won by 7 wickets. Prediction missed.

Toss and conditions

Rockets get the new ball while it bounces, then chase a known target under lights.

Key factors

149 is the barVENUE

Hundred first innings at Trent Bridge average 149; anything under leaves Phoenix chasing shadows.

New ball, hard deckTR

Craig Overton and Mohammad Amir attack a Fast & Bounce surface at its freshest.

Top order under 27BP

Clarke, Dickson and Smeed have all failed inside ten balls in recent hits.

Chasing powerTR

Duckett averages 48.0, Donald strikes at 224.2 — a known target suits them.

Projected score and key matchup

First innings: 148-4 (chasing) — Phoenix par is below the venue's 149 average; Rockets need controlled, not explosive, chasing.

Joe Clarke v Mohammad Amir: Amir's left-arm angle across Clarke on a bouncy surface; Clarke's last three read 1*(8), 35(23), 7(10).

Players to watch

Trent Rockets (Men)

Batting

Aneurin Donald · Avg 42.6 · SR 224.2 · last 3: 40(19) · 20(9) · 20(12)

Ben Duckett · Avg 48.0 · SR 144.6 · last 3: 64(47) · 0(2) · 52*(45)

Finn Allen · Avg 30.0 · SR 189.9 · last 3: 2(3) · 72*(35) · 33(19)

Bowling

Craig Overton · 1.2 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 0-1 · 1-11 · 3-23

Mohammad Amir · 1.0 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 1-1 · 2-20 · 0-24

Birmingham Phoenix (Men)

Batting

Joe Clarke · Avg 26.2 · SR 144.0 · last 3: 1*(8) · 35(23) · 7(10)

Sean Dickson · Avg 21.6 · SR 166.2 · last 3: 11(10) · 20*(13) · 2(6)

Will Smeed · Avg 19.8 · SR 139.4 · last 3: 0*(3) · 5(4) · 35(28)

Bowling

Ben Dwarshuis · 1.8 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 2-18 · 1-33 · 1-32

Chris Wood · 1.2 wkts/inns (last 5) · last 3: 1-21 · 0-43 · 2-31

Head-to-head and form

Recent Midlands meetings have been tight and low-scoring, with Rockets edging the Trent Bridge fixtures.

Trent Rockets (Men): Billings keeps with no named captain on the sheet; Banton's omission thins the middle order.

Birmingham Phoenix (Men): Ferreira leads a reshaped Phoenix batting first against his will on a seamer's pitch.

The story so far

Birmingham Phoenix did not want the first innings on a pitch rated Fast & Bounce with Pace & Bounce help for the seamers. With Joe Clarke, Sean Dickson and Will Smeed all averaging under 27, the first 25 balls decide this.

The chase: TR need 112

Trent Rockets. Duckett's form plus Allen's ceiling against a total that needed 135-plus to threaten on this surface.

Birmingham lost six wickets getting to 111, which says the Fast & Bounce surface offered something but never enough to justify that total. Trent Rockets need one top-order batter to go deep — everything else is margin.

Conditions: 21.1°C, clear sky, 46% humidity, 16.7 wind — low dew risk, so Dwarshuis keeps his grip late.

112 to win off 100 balls — 5.6 runs per five needed.
Phoenix 111/6 sits well under par on this surface.
Rockets need Duckett or Allen to bat past ball 60.

Total under par

111 leaves Birmingham no cushion once the powerplay field lifts.

New-ball window

Dwarshuis must break the top three inside twenty balls.

No dew relief

Clear sky and 46% humidity keep Birmingham's grip and control intact.

Ben Duckett v Ben Dwarshuis: Left-arm angle across Duckett early is Birmingham's one clean route in; survive that opening set and the chase flattens out.

Pressure points

First 25 balls: Dwarshuis at Allen and Donald.
Middle squeeze — Wood and spin hunting a soft dismissal.
Any two-wicket cluster turns 112 into a contest.

Batting to watch